Less than Half the Jobs Are Safe in Case of Outbreak

TITO BOERI AND COLLEAGUES CALCULATED THE SHARE OF PEOPLE THAT COULD SAFELY WORK IN ABSENCE OF PERSONAL PROTECTION EQUIPMENT

In the thick of the lockdown, Tito Boeri, Full Professor of Labor Economics at Bocconi, analyzed the work-safety trade-off in six European economies along with Alessandro Caiumi (Fondazione Rodolfo Debenedetti and Bocconi) and Marco Paccagnella (OECD). In absence of personal protection equipment, according to the COVID Crisis Lab paper, less than half of the jobs could have been considered safe, even after relaxation of mobility constraints and allowing for limited face-to-face contact.
 
The share of safe jobs was calculated to vary from 42.93% in Spain to 49.17% in Sweden, with Italy at 46.23%, the UK at 47,71%, France at 47.87% and Germany at 48.93%.
In particular, the authors estimated that around 15% of the jobs in Europe were being carried out remotely at the end of March, as opposed to 10% in normal times, but that a share from 24% to 31% could potentially be carried out from home and be thus considered completely safe. “These jobs are mainly concentrated in services. Professors, engineers, lawyers, architects are just some examples of the occupations included in this category”.
 
Envisaging a lift of the strictest limitations of the lockdown, the authors added up jobs involving limited mobility away from home and no personal contact (veterinarians, animal caretakers, foresters and conservation workers, archivists, jewellers, chemists, etc.); and limited mobility and infrequent and safe face-to-face contact (mechanics, plumbers, electricians, drivers, etc.), thus reaching the 40-50% share of jobs.
 
Unfortunately, the fraction of safe jobs is particularly low in most of the strategic industries involved in the war against coronavirus, notably those that could help enhance capacity in the health sector. Furthermore, the option to call younger workers back to work, as they appear to have a much lower risk, would have been less effective than expected, because the young are under-represented in unsafe jobs and a large share of them, in Italy, live with vulnerable parents.
 
Tito Boeri, Alessandro Caiumi, Marco Paccagnella,“Mitigating the Work-Safety Trade-Off”, in COVID Economics, Issue 2.
 

by Fabio Todesco